My Personal Stock Analysis:Which Bank Stock to buy this week?

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I was looking at my COLFinancial portfolio and to my surprise I don’t have a single bank stock to date. Since its Columbus day here in my side of the planet and at the same time the rain prevent me from going outside for my photography hobby I decided to look at some bank stocks.


Unfortunately I have long been outside the range of fundamental & technical analysis due to my hectic work schedule and my blog from Blogger’s migration to hosted WordPress so I consulted COL Financials Technical Guide to direct me to my stock picking. I saw four stocks that has a UP trend  and a BUY recommendation. Further I plug-in all four in Bloomberg’s chart to have a comparison of the four:

Comparing four Philippine bank stocks

source: Bloomberg.com

I peek at each stocks RSI and of the four BDO 7 BPI has been on the bullish uptrend and it seems foolish for me to ride on that trend. If ever I pick them and buy today the likelihood of profiting will be slight because of the small gap I can catch or I may be wrong but better follow gut feeling for now and wait of good outcomes on this two stocks.

 

On the other SECB & RCB seems promising.

SECB though may have the highest price of the four but PE ratio is still within the 10 mark rule and it just started to have a slow down as suggested by both MACD and RSI. Using Fibonnacci Retracements, I place in my bids at 23% and 38% range. Yes if you notice I have this practice of placing orders by 8,000 and by at least two notches down when buying and two notches up when selling.

Why so? Because I wanted to make sure that if the stock’s price goes down further I will be able to cost average right away in case these two bids get matched and same with selling I may have miss 50% of the possible profit but I least I never really lost that much.

SECB  also has an upcoming cash dividend consisting of 0.50 regular cash dividend and 0.50 special dividend of which ex-dividend date is on Oct 12 and record date is Oct 17, 2012.  am wondering that instead of price picking up it’s going the other way. Will see price action probably in coming weeks.

 

RCB on the other hand has been steadily going up and now started to have a downtrend or this could be a continuation of its consolidation. Its price graph shows a break out starting February of this year from 30 level going to 40 level and has been comfortably sitting at 40 level since March.

 

Besides the earning growth for the past four years RCB is also raising funds to comply with Basel 3 rules of BSP. Thus there will selling of these stocks in order for the company to comply with capital adequacy ratio as required y the new regulation.


 

Again this is my humble personal analysis, always DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Financial Freedom Advocate About the blogger

Louis Delos Angeles is a Certified Public Accountant, blogger behind Investing in Philippines, and author of Investing in Stocks: Preparing for the future small amount at a time. Check him out in Google+ Learn more about Louis and his financial freedom advocacy here.

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